The Wisdom of Crowds: Bubbles and Crashes

notes from Surowiecki, James. The Wisdom of Crowds. (Anchor: 2005) Bubbles and crashes are textbook examples of collective decisionmaking gone wrong. In a bubble, all of the conditions that make groups intelligent — independence, diversity, private judgement — disappear. You don’t see bubbles in the “real” economy — they’re essentially a phenomenon of financial markets. When … Continue reading

The Wisdom of Crowds: Collective Organization

notes from Surowiecki, James. The Wisdom of Crowds. (Anchor: 2005). Pedestrians are a well-organized crowd, “in which lots of small, subtle adjustments in pace and stride and direction add up to a relatively smooth and efficient flow.” They are solving coordination problems: “to solve [a coordination problem], a person has to think not only about what he … Continue reading

Meeting—22 November 2011

In attendance: David Kristin History of a Company idea 6 GROUPS: Overall narrative of the show is the history of a (fictional) company, told from the standpoint of six different “stakeholders” in the company Different groups that have a stake in how the company is valued / what is valuable about the company owner management … Continue reading

On randomness of winning streaks, and barcode tracking

The Drunkard’s Walk Audiobook: part 2, chapter 3, ending at 44:35 discussion of randomness and performance and how we misperceive the cumulative effects of success i.e. the difference between the odds of one specific individual in one fixed period of time hitting a winning streak based on purely random, coin toss decisions, vs. the odds of some ONE of many … Continue reading

Use tokens not currency?

Ok, so maybe use tokens (a la poker chips) instead of actual US currency Then “cash out” at the end Tokens’ value to USD is constant Value to vignette performances fluctuates the “Endowment effect” behave like a “buyer”? (invested in the show they are selling, have endowment effect) behave like a “seller”? (just looking for … Continue reading